In today’s volatile property market, even fully leased buildings can face uncertainty when interest rates rise and yields compress. One of our clients is a developer with a 30-storey, 76-unit office tower in Bonifacio Global City. They sought clarity on whether their investment was still performing as expected. Through econometric analysis, we transformed complex market data into actions. This gave them financial insight that helped them see beyond occupancy rates. They focus on true value, risk, and return.

The Client’s Challenge

A private developer approached our team with a critical question:

“Is our 30-storey, 76-unit office building in Bonifacio Global City still financially viable under current market conditions?”

The client had completed construction two years earlier. The building was fully leased. They were concerned about rising interest rates. Modest rental escalations are eroding investment returns.

The property’s leasing structure appeared competitive. It includes a mix of bare-shell and fitted office units. These units range from PhP1,500 to PhP1,800 per sqm per month. However, management wanted to know if the building’s cash flows truly reflected its economic value. They questioned whether adjustments in pricing, escalation, or capital structure were necessary.

In short, the challenge was not occupancy — it was understanding profitability in a tightening capital market.

Our Approach

Instead of relying on conventional yield assumptions, our team applied econometric modeling. This is an analytical framework that links property-level performance to measurable macroeconomic drivers.

We began by reconstructing the building’s income statement. We also reconstructed rental schedules across 76 office units and all 30 floors. We factored in current lease terms and 3% annual escalations. Additionally, we used observed market data from Pinnacle Real Estate Consulting and Arcadis Philippines.

From there, we derived two distinct discount rates using both finance-based and property-specific risk models:

Each parameter was anchored to empirical data. This includes the risk-free rate, beta, and risk premiums. These were tied to data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, PSA inflation series, and Damodaran’s country risk tables.

By integrating these variables, we aligned the building’s valuation with economic reality rather than static, one-size-fits-all assumptions.

Findings: Translating Data into Decision

Our projection model covered a 10-year period, reflecting the economic life of the building’s interior improvements.

Despite the modest NPV results, the cash inflows were sufficient to recover the capital outlay within the project’s economic life. This indicated a financially balanced asset — not speculative, but self-sustaining and capital-preserving.

The key insight for the client was that profitability was not being lost. It was simply redefined by changing macroeconomic conditions. In other words, the property’s yield had adjusted to reflect a maturing market.

We extended the analysis to examine how the project would perform under various economic shocks:

• A 1% increase in the discount rate (e.g., due to rising interest rates) would reduce the property’s value by approximately PhP700,000.
• A 1% increase in rental escalation would improve valuation by about PhP500,000.

This confirmed that interest-rate and capital-market movements have a greater effect on value than marginal rental adjustments.

The adopted PhP1,800 per sqm rate for fitted offices is advantageous. It places the property squarely within the prime BGC rental range of PhP1,400–PhP1,900. The effective yield is 7–8% per annum. This is a level consistent with institutional benchmarks in Metro Manila’s investment-grade office sector.

The results of the econometric analysis allowed the client to make well-informed and financially sound decisions. Our findings confirmed the current rental rate structure of PHP 1,500 to PHP 1,800 per square meter per month. This rate was aligned with prevailing market conditions. These rates match the conditions in Bonifacio Global City. Attempting to increase the rates further would risk higher tenant turnover without producing a proportional increase in building value. Hence, the most strategic course was to maintain existing rents, ensuring consistent occupancy and stable revenue streams.

Second, the study validated the client’s 3% annual escalation policy. It demonstrated that this policy accurately reflected the average inflation rate. It also matched the standard lease renewal adjustments in the area. This approach ensured that income growth would remain sustainable and competitive, balancing tenant affordability with long-term asset performance.

Finally, we advised the client to reclassify the building’s investment profile—from a short-term growth-driven asset to a core income property. This repositioning recognized that the building had already reached stabilization, with 100% occupancy and predictable cash inflows. The property could now serve as a capital preservation anchor within the client’s portfolio. It would provide reliable income to offset higher-risk, higher-yield developments elsewhere.

What initially seemed like a modest or even negative Net Present Value (NPV) was reinterpreted. It became a measure of financial efficiency. The building’s inflows matched its cost of capital. This indicated that it was performing exactly as expected in a mature market like BGC. Through this shift in perspective, the client gained a clearer understanding of the property’s value. The client also gained a more strategic framework for portfolio management, anchored in data, discipline, and economic logic.

This case highlights how econometric reasoning transforms real estate valuation from a static appraisal into a dynamic decision-making tool. We treated rents, yields, and escalation rates as variables linked to broader economic conditions. This approach helped us uncover not just the property’s value but also the logic behind it. The client learned that a neutral or breakeven NPV is not necessarily a weakness. It can signify equilibrium and maturity in a market. In this market, stability is the new form of strength.

For investors, the key takeaway is that macro-driven valuation brings clarity in times of uncertainty. Understanding how discount rates move with monetary policy provides a sharper sense of timing. Recognizing how escalation aligns with inflation sharpens your understanding of risk and opportunity. For developers, the lesson is strategic. Once a building reaches full occupancy and stable returns, it should be viewed as a core income asset. This asset anchors the portfolio and preserves capital rather than being seen as a speculative venture.

Ultimately, the study demonstrates that data and discipline lead to confidence. In Bonifacio Global City, every percentage point of yield and risk can mean millions in value. Econometric analysis offers a distinct advantage. It gives clients the ability to move beyond intuition. Consultants can also ground their investment strategies on measurable, defensible evidence.

By: Gus Agosto, JD, REA, REB, REC, MA Economics (University of San Carlos)
Paralegal – Real Estate, Environmental & Corporate Law