Tag Archives: finance

How Econometric Analysis Solved a Client’s Valuation Challenge in BGC

In today’s volatile property market, even fully leased buildings can face uncertainty when interest rates rise and yields compress. One of our clients is a developer with a 30-storey, 76-unit office tower in Bonifacio Global City. They sought clarity on whether their investment was still performing as expected. Through econometric analysis, we transformed complex market data into actions. This gave them financial insight that helped them see beyond occupancy rates. They focus on true value, risk, and return.

The Client’s Challenge

A private developer approached our team with a critical question:

“Is our 30-storey, 76-unit office building in Bonifacio Global City still financially viable under current market conditions?”

The client had completed construction two years earlier. The building was fully leased. They were concerned about rising interest rates. Modest rental escalations are eroding investment returns.

The property’s leasing structure appeared competitive. It includes a mix of bare-shell and fitted office units. These units range from PhP1,500 to PhP1,800 per sqm per month. However, management wanted to know if the building’s cash flows truly reflected its economic value. They questioned whether adjustments in pricing, escalation, or capital structure were necessary.

In short, the challenge was not occupancy — it was understanding profitability in a tightening capital market.

Our Approach

Instead of relying on conventional yield assumptions, our team applied econometric modeling. This is an analytical framework that links property-level performance to measurable macroeconomic drivers.

We began by reconstructing the building’s income statement. We also reconstructed rental schedules across 76 office units and all 30 floors. We factored in current lease terms and 3% annual escalations. Additionally, we used observed market data from Pinnacle Real Estate Consulting and Arcadis Philippines.

From there, we derived two distinct discount rates using both finance-based and property-specific risk models:

MethodFormulaResult
Finance-Based (CAPM)R=Rf+β(ERP)+SRP17.40%
Real Estate Build-UpR=Rf+∑RiskPremiums13.16%

Each parameter was anchored to empirical data. This includes the risk-free rate, beta, and risk premiums. These were tied to data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, PSA inflation series, and Damodaran’s country risk tables.

By integrating these variables, we aligned the building’s valuation with economic reality rather than static, one-size-fits-all assumptions.

Findings: Translating Data into Decision

Our projection model covered a 10-year period, reflecting the economic life of the building’s interior improvements.

Discount RatePresent Value of Cash Flows (PhP)Fit-out & Equipment Cost (PhP)NPV (PhP)Interpretation
13.16%11,801,35812,472,358–671,000Breakeven (stabilized scenario)
17.40%10,655,64612,472,358–1,816,000Slightly negative (equity scenario)

Despite the modest NPV results, the cash inflows were sufficient to recover the capital outlay within the project’s economic life. This indicated a financially balanced asset — not speculative, but self-sustaining and capital-preserving.

The key insight for the client was that profitability was not being lost. It was simply redefined by changing macroeconomic conditions. In other words, the property’s yield had adjusted to reflect a maturing market.

We extended the analysis to examine how the project would perform under various economic shocks:

  • A 1% increase in the discount rate (e.g., due to rising interest rates) would reduce the property’s value by approximately PhP700,000.
  • A 1% increase in rental escalation would improve valuation by about PhP500,000.

This confirmed that interest-rate and capital-market movements have a greater effect on value than marginal rental adjustments.

The adopted PhP1,800 per sqm rate for fitted offices is advantageous. It places the property squarely within the prime BGC rental range of PhP1,400–PhP1,900. The effective yield is 7–8% per annum. This is a level consistent with institutional benchmarks in Metro Manila’s investment-grade office sector.

The results of the econometric analysis allowed the client to make well-informed and financially sound decisions. Our findings confirmed the current rental rate structure of PHP 1,500 to PHP 1,800 per square meter per month. This rate was aligned with prevailing market conditions. These rates match the conditions in Bonifacio Global City. Attempting to increase the rates further would risk higher tenant turnover without producing a proportional increase in building value. Hence, the most strategic course was to maintain existing rents, ensuring consistent occupancy and stable revenue streams.

Second, the study validated the client’s 3% annual escalation policy. It demonstrated that this policy accurately reflected the average inflation rate. It also matched the standard lease renewal adjustments in the area. This approach ensured that income growth would remain sustainable and competitive, balancing tenant affordability with long-term asset performance.

Finally, we advised the client to reclassify the building’s investment profile—from a short-term growth-driven asset to a core income property. This repositioning recognized that the building had already reached stabilization, with 100% occupancy and predictable cash inflows. The property could now serve as a capital preservation anchor within the client’s portfolio. It would provide reliable income to offset higher-risk, higher-yield developments elsewhere.

What initially seemed like a modest or even negative Net Present Value (NPV) was reinterpreted. It became a measure of financial efficiency. The building’s inflows matched its cost of capital. This indicated that it was performing exactly as expected in a mature market like BGC. Through this shift in perspective, the client gained a clearer understanding of the property’s value. The client also gained a more strategic framework for portfolio management, anchored in data, discipline, and economic logic.

This case highlights how econometric reasoning transforms real estate valuation from a static appraisal into a dynamic decision-making tool. We treated rents, yields, and escalation rates as variables linked to broader economic conditions. This approach helped us uncover not just the property’s value but also the logic behind it. The client learned that a neutral or breakeven NPV is not necessarily a weakness. It can signify equilibrium and maturity in a market. In this market, stability is the new form of strength.

For investors, the key takeaway is that macro-driven valuation brings clarity in times of uncertainty. Understanding how discount rates move with monetary policy provides a sharper sense of timing. Recognizing how escalation aligns with inflation sharpens your understanding of risk and opportunity. For developers, the lesson is strategic. Once a building reaches full occupancy and stable returns, it should be viewed as a core income asset. This asset anchors the portfolio and preserves capital rather than being seen as a speculative venture.

Ultimately, the study demonstrates that data and discipline lead to confidence. In Bonifacio Global City, every percentage point of yield and risk can mean millions in value. Econometric analysis offers a distinct advantage. It gives clients the ability to move beyond intuition. Consultants can also ground their investment strategies on measurable, defensible evidence.

By: Gus Agosto, JD, REA, REB, REC, MA Economics (University of San Carlos)
Paralegal – Real Estate, Environmental & Corporate Law

Property Identification: The Sacred Foundation of Real Estate Appraisal

In the meticulous world of real estate appraisal, one principle stands above all others: you cannot value what you cannot identify correctly. Whether working on a condominium in Makati, a farmland in Bukidnon, or a contested estate in Cebu, the first and most sacred duty of any appraiser is to accurately and defensibly identify the subject property. This is not just a technical requirement—it is the foundation of credibility, legality, and fairness in valuation. A mistake in property identification is not a small error. It invalidates every step that follows: the market comparison, highest and best use analysis, risk assessment, and final value estimate. Simply put, wrong property means wrong valuation.

Property identification involves several components. It means correctly determining the legal identity of the land—via Transfer Certificate of Title (TCT), technical description, and lot number. It also means identifying the actual physical location and ensuring it matches the documents, zoning classification, and any physical improvements or encumbrances. Every valuation method—whether it’s the market approach, cost approach, or income approach—relies on this first step. If you appraise the wrong lot, all your calculations, assumptions, and conclusions become legally and factually meaningless.

This is why misidentification carries not only technical consequences but also legal and ethical ones. A wrong appraisal can lead to court rejection of the report, denial of loans by banks, and even legal liability for misleading courts or clients. Under Article 19 of the Civil Code of the Philippines, professionals have a duty to act with justice, give everyone their due, and observe honesty and good faith. The Philippine Valuation Standards likewise emphasize that appraisers must exercise due diligence and care—beginning with accurate property identification.

Some of the most common pitfalls in this process include relying solely on the owner’s verbal claim without matching it against documentary evidence, misplotting technical descriptions, failing to check for easements or encroachments, and confusing adjacent lots with similar features. These errors are preventable with a disciplined and documented approach. A responsible appraiser will cross-check TCT data with the tax map and zoning ordinance, conduct field validation through site visits, use geotagged photos or drones, and even consult barangay officials or boundary markers when in doubt.

The risks of inaccuracy are very real. Imagine an appraiser tasked to value Lot 6 but instead inspects and reports on Lot 5. If Lot 5 is under threat of expropriation or prone to flooding, while Lot 6 is not, the valuation will be drastically wrong. In judicial proceedings, such a mistake may result in an unjust award of compensation or legal challenge. In lending, it may lead to defective collateralization. The appraiser’s name—and the integrity of the profession—are on the line.

Property identification is not just a preliminary step—it is the moral compass of professional practice. It sets the tone for the accuracy, fairness, and trustworthiness of the entire report. Real estate is a high-stakes industry. The margin for error is slim, and the cost of error is great. That is why we say: Property identification is sacred. Wrong property is wrong valuation. Always.

Why Combining Brokering and Valuation Creates a Conflict of Interest

In the real estate industry, professionals often wear multiple hats to meet the diverse needs of clients. Brokers facilitate the buying, selling, or leasing of properties and earn commissions based on the transaction’s value. Appraisers, on the other hand, provide impartial, accurate property valuations that are essential for informed decision-making by buyers, sellers, lenders, and investors. Although these roles complement each other, combining them under a single practitioner can create significant conflicts of interest that undermine the integrity of both professions.

The core issue lies in the divergent motivations of brokers and appraisers. Brokers are incentivized by the commission, which is tied to the value of the property and the success of the transaction. This financial motivation can lead brokers to manipulate property valuations—either inflating the value to secure a sale or undervaluing a property to expedite the transaction. Such actions may benefit the broker but distort the true market value and could ultimately harm other stakeholders, such as lenders or buyers.

In contrast, appraisers are expected to provide unbiased, objective property valuations. Their work should be independent and based solely on the property’s characteristics, market conditions, and other relevant factors, without any external influences. When an individual engages in both brokering and appraising, it raises concerns about the integrity of the valuation and the possibility that the dual roles could influence the professional’s objectivity, judgment, and ethical decision-making. Their financial interest in closing the deal could lead to a questionable and potentially inflated or deflated property value.

A few weeks ago, a client requested our company to sign a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) to ensure the confidentiality of the information they would provide, we reassured them that confidentiality is a cornerstone of our professional practice. Not only do we strictly comply with the Data Privacy Act of the land, but we also adhere to the ethical principles outlined in the International Valuation Standards (IVS). These guiding frameworks collectively reinforce our commitment to safeguarding client information, maintaining impartiality, and upholding the highest standards of professional integrity.

As a company that handles sensitive and proprietary client information, we strictly comply with the Data Privacy Act. This legislation mandates the secure handling, processing, and storage of data to protect it from unauthorized access, misuse, or breaches. Our compliance ensures that every piece of information entrusted to us is treated with utmost care and responsibility.

Recognizing this inherent conflict of interest, the Real Estate Service Act (RESA) of the Philippines, which governs the practice of real estate services in the country, mandates the separation of the real estate broker and appraiser professions. RESA ensures that each profession operates independently, preserving the integrity of their respective roles. The law encourages individuals to specialize in either brokering or appraising, which safeguards both professional accountability and the quality of services provided to clients. By doing so, RESA helps maintain public trust and transparency in real estate transactions.

The separation of these professions also aligns with global best practices, such as those outlined in the International Valuation Standards (IVS). These standards emphasize the importance of ethics, integrity, and impartiality in valuation practices. By keeping brokering and appraising distinct, the real estate industry can better ensure that valuations remain objective and reliable, upholding the public interest and minimizing any potential conflicts of interest.

Big turnout at Complex property valuation seminar in Cebu

Appraiser Agosto, lectures on Complex Property Valuation-Valuation Masterclass II. The seminar workshop, held in Castlepeak Hotel in Cebu City,  was organized by PAREB Cebu Real Estate Board.

The seminar participants reached to more than 80 real estate practitioners, including real estate appraiser and brokers not only from Cebu but also from Negros, Cagayan de Oro and Leyte.”I was stunned by the turnout of participants”, Gus told the organizers of the seminar. “It just showed that practitioners values the seminar”.

In the 2-day lecture, participants learned from different case studies actual application of solving appraisal problems using discounted cash flow method, opportunity cost, replacement value and market studies on township development.

“Thank you for sharing your expertise on us”, one of the participant shared in the lecture room. “Very knowledgeable in the topics discussed”, another participant shared.

The valuation masterclass is a project of PAREB Academy for its members. Its objective is to raise the level of PAREB Appraiser-members professional practice through seminars, workshop and provide linkages through appraiser’s directory.

Appraiser Gus Agosto has conducted lectures already in different areas of the country. Hosted by different local board, he traveled Iloilo City, Dipolog City, Cagayan de Oro, Pasig, Caloocan, Lucena, Puerto Princesa, Baguio, and other areas.

 

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Letter to the editor on Valuation Profession

Dear Editor,

This is in response to the article of Mr. Ramon Clarete  published on 6 January 2019 on Property Valuation Service: Are we losing competitiveness?

I thank Mr. Ramon Clarete for his interest in our work and for the stimulating comments which highlights our profession and offer a broader perspective. I am certainly in agreement with the writer  on the role of property valuation to economies in weathering crisis.  However, I was appalled on some points of his letter and allow me to comment. His assertion on the maturity of the real estate appraisal profession; quality of service and the valuation standards are quiet disturbing.

Real estate appraisal in the country is in its infancy stage, as a profession. Even though it started in 1961 but it was considered as a trade rather than a profession. However, on July 2009, the passage into law of the Republic Act 9646 or the Real Estate Service Act of the Philippines (RESA), real estate appraisal has been recognized as a profession and strengthened.

Mr. Clarete pointed his pen on the 90% of the appraisers. He consistently mixes the know-how in real estate practice and the quality of service. However, Mr. Clarete misses the point.  The number of appraisers might triple in number, but the question is do the opportunities to practice the profession also tripled?

 

To practice the profession, appraisers have been subjected to different barriers that only few can endure. Take for example the government projects under President Duterte, the Department of Public Works and Highways required appraisers to have an accreditation with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to qualify in a bidding.  BSP has its own criteria in evaluating of appraisers outlined in their guidelines “BSP Acceptable Appraisal Companies for Ocular Inspection and Appraisal of Real Estate Properties”. To be part of the list, the appraiser or the appraisal company must comply with certain criteria to be accredited. One of which is the setting of company net worth to P 4 Million; and the other one is the setting of ten (10) years’ experience in real estate appraisal business as a requirement to manage and sign the appraisal report.

Securities and Exchange Commission, Energy Regulatory Commission other government agencies and even commercial banks have their own guidelines and requirement. It is not surprising that only 11 companies, as of December 31, 2017, were accredited by the Securities and Exchange Commission, and 22 under the BSP.

In the broader context, these accreditation requirements and non-implementation of certain provision of Real Estate Service Act have a multiplier effect to appraisal practice. Negating the appraisers of the opportunity to participate in government projects and practice their profession. And it has been 10 years now.

On the International Standards.  Mr. Clarete should never forget that the International Valuation Standards was adopted and prescribed as the reference standards in the country only on October 2009, by prescribing the Philippine Valuation Standards. It is only since then that the country laid down the foundation, through education and training, in developing the capability of property appraisers in the country to be at par with other countries. Thus, appraisers now are attending international seminars and conferences to learn best practices of other countries and also share our situation and experiences. In an increasingly globalised world, the consistency and compatibility of standards across jurisdictions is an important issue

The valuation practice and standards in the appraisal are intertwined. Theories will remain a theory if it will not be applied. Provide the appraisers with the venue to practice their profession, and they will surely rise to a new and higher level of professional practice.

We should endeavour in helping real estate appraisers to developed and fulfil its role in the economy, society and our people and be globally competitive in professional practice and standards. #

 

Read here:

https://www.bworldonline.com/letter-to-the-editor/?fbclid=IwAR0roGpyewKd7A_rTR4e89ToWgzjV9RR10TLElEADUCzLXCJr5DhMpUrWQw

Why valuation standards are important

I attended a seminar on Philippine Valuation Standards (PVS) recently and spoke to the technical committee members that produce it. The seminar was attended by Assessors of different local government units, nationwide. While the speakers were both members of the Technical Committee on drafting the Philippine Valuation Standards 2017.

I outlined the most important points in the discussion, relate to my experiences in valuation and share it with you.

Enhance the reputation of the profession and be at par around the world. Currently, there are multiple valuation methods used by different government agencies, local government units, private individuals, and banks. Thus it results in as many conflicting values for the same piece of property.

An established set of consistent standards would help in appraising assets and liabilities for financial reporting, especially for companies that control assets in various countries and work across national borders. For valuations for other purposes, the reputation of the profession would be enhanced if the clients could expect consistency in valuation reporting internationally.

Simplify the appraisal process. I work an appraisal for a client in U.S. and Australian federal territories, which typically require different standards. But if an appraiser-member of RICS is performing the appraisal in U.K., it should also comply with RICS standards, which differ in subtle ways.

PVS is the accepted set of standards for valuation in the Philippine setting. Contrary to some notions, it is not only applicable to the government agencies but rather it includes and should also be applied to bank institutions and private individuals.

A single set of standards and guidance notes would enable appraisers to produce a credible valuation with a similar report structure regardless of membership or the location of the asset to be valued.

An era of unified professional standards. There are many associations in the country which offer seminars and training for appraisers. All of this would be simplified through learning and adopting valuation standards. Regardless of which association you align with, the pathway for new appraisers to be a competent appraiser need to be consistent.

 With the Philippine Valuation Standards, the international valuation standards in the broader context, we now have a uniform term of engagements, report disclosures, recognized bases of value, terminology used in reporting and guidance notes.

We have valuation standards that are accepted regardless of location or the professional organization of the appraiser. What we need to do now is to encourage consistency and professionalism, further strengthening the public’s trust in valuations. The first step to this could be asking the members of multiple organizations who are active in the various leadership councils to ensure that their members are actively using the relevant sets of standards in their practice and continually looking for ways to streamline the process in a manner that works for all.

Our generation should be happy to be in the era in which we have now a uniform sets of standards. But there is still work to be done. We should endeavor to unite appraisers in different organizations and location to study, adopt and implement the valuation standards.

In this way, we can raise the level of consistency and professionalism, further strengthening the public’s trust in valuations.

 

Gus Agosto is the Vice-President for Visayas of the Philippine Association of Real Estate Board (PAREB). He is the Managing Owner of AA RealtyPro Solutions, an appraisal and consulting business organization. He also serves as faculty of University of San Carlos, Cebu City and took up Master of Arts in Economics (Candidate) in the same university. 

Importance of Cloud Storage for Appraisers

appraisal-workfilesPaperless office is one of the major tasks for every practicing real estate professional. Technology streamlines transactions and assignments to free more time for building relationships with the clients and in providing quality report.

Appraisers have lot of documents, photos, maps and sketch plans. Storing them in the cloud has made it easier to share and organize. You can share your data easily with clients and can even jointly collaborate on documents with others online.

“If you can perform the major tasks anywhere and away from office, you’re untethered,”  Gus Agosto, the Owner-Appraiser of AA Realty Solutions,  have said.

With your documents on the cloud, you avoid bogging down devices with every photo you’ve ever taken of your assignment. The other benefit is you won’t lose any of files if your computer crashes.

What’s important for appraisers, besides a comfortable camera, drone and high-tech computers, is always being able to access your programs and data WHEREVER YOU ARE: at home, office, branch office, breakfast, lunch, travelling, on client appointments, and at the title company.

Learning to make the most of new technology can be challenging, but staying on top of tech trends for business has become an important factor in every success.

“Real estate appraisal is overdue for cloud storage. Practitioners should appreciate the benefit of cloud computing. This is the future of real estate appraisal.”

Due Diligence In Real Estate Transactions

811-Due-Diligence-When-Buying-Real-EstateReal estate transactions involve a significant amount of money and rights of individual. The due diligence process minimizes the risks and provides safeguards against determinable issues that may affect  real estate transaction.

Making the right decision in real estate transactions can be a challenge without complete and accurate information. A traditional legal maxim  “caveat emptor” or “buyer beware” gives more emphasis on the importance of the conduct of due diligence. This is from the traditional rulings that courts would make the buyer stuck with whatever he or she purchased and would have limited recourse. Due to this likely result, buyer had to be extra cautious when making buying decisions.

Due diligence provides  a thorough investigation in a transaction. It helps the buyer have a better understanding about the property, the documents, environment and operational fundamentals of the transaction. This process help in avoiding surprises after the transaction and when the remedies may be limited.

The actual scope of the due diligence process depends on the buyer’s needs and the transaction itself. If the buyer is a developer, he or she may have very different needs than the buyer in purchasing the property for lease or investment. There are individuals who have a pending court case and interested in knowing the property to determine the site and use as evidence in court.

The due diligence process begins by determining the expected use of the property and make this information as a framework. Due diligence seek to address a number of issues and identify important information for buyers. This information includes determining the property’s owners, boundary lines, the rights that come with the sale, the expected future use of the property and highest and best use as development options. The process should identify any issues related to the property title, easements, encumbrances, liens or other hurdles to complete ownership. Additionally, the due diligence process can reveal if there are any restrictions that might affect the use of the property or its development, such as environmental issues, zoning restrictions or legal compliance matters such as abiding by Agrarian Reform Law, NIPAS Act, Agriculture and fisheries Act, road right of way act, government programs and more.

The due diligence process can also reveal information as it is uncovered. For example, the technical description plotting cannot be close may pop up after the document analysis is conducted. Additionally, it is important to determine the real estate market and demographic data to predict the future demands in the area.  Site inspection will determine the actual topography, terrain, shape, boundaries, neighbourhood and existence of any occupants or informal settlers in the property.

Last but not the least is the environmental assessment, to uncover any daunting environmental hazards or issues of the property such as gas leak, wet lands, or use of the property as manufacturing in the past.

Due diligence process is very important. Adequate time must be reserved for this process for thorough and careful study. Party in a transaction should be encouraged to provide specified documents and information to ease the transaction. Be aware of all interests, liabilities, expenses and possible uses for the property.

Due diligence will give parties in transactions to arrive in an informed decision.

EnP. Gus Agosto conferred Fellow status

Urban Planner  Gus Agosto, a faculty of the University of San Carlos, was conferred  with Fellow Status by Social Watch Philippines and People’s Public Finance Institute at the University of the Philippines, Lahug, Cebu City,

Social Watch Philippines is the network of hundred non-government organizations that initiated direct citizens’ participation in national and local budget processes through the Alternative Budget Initiative (ABI), while People’s Public Finance Institute is a center that educates the general public, civil society organizations and individuals on national and local public finance processes working under the framework of citizens’ participation.

Fellowship is an honor bestowed upon individuals that contribute in further strengthening citizen’s engagement in public finance. The new Fellows are drawn from academe, practitioners and graduate students across Central Visayas.

“I feel quite honored that Social Watch bestowed Fellow Status upon me,” Planner Gus said. “By doing so, they have acknowledged my teaching work in public finance and its contribution in important ways to students, professionals and the broad public. It is both gratifying and humbling at the same time.”

As a faculty, he is teaching public finance at the University of San Carlos, Cebu. “I’m very interested with the topic, being an urban planner and economist; I’ve been involved in various ways in public finance.“ Planner Gus also has a professional interest in the role that a Fellow can play in supporting and improving public involvement in government finance.

Prior to the conferment, a two-day discussion on the development of public finance and citizen’s engagement was held in collaboration with Social Watch Philippines, United Nations Development Program and University of the Philippines-Cebu.